Technical Note 4: Modelling at EU and MS level

Modelling of economic and technological developments as well as emissions is key part for policy and strategy development at the EU level and in a number of Member States. Requirements such as the reporting of integrated national energy and climate plans and long-term strategies by Member States increase the need for modelling at the Member States level. However, exchange and coordination of modelling at the different levels is so far very limited. Rather, there are clear differences between the models applied and the assumptions and input data used at EU level and the models used in the individual Member States.

Two models are currently being used or developed at EU level. The PRIMES model, which has often been criticised in many member states for its black box character, and the POTEnCIA model, which is currently still under development but will be more open and freely available.

In this technical note we explain the differences between the two models (PRIMES and POTEnCIA) used at EU level as well as the differences between EU scenarios and Member State scenarios. Furthermore, a tentative approach of the Association negaWatt from France is described in which an attempt is made to bring a net zero MS scenario at EU level.